Virginia Real Estate Predictions 2021

In a normal year as part of local real estate association leadership, I would be attending the Virginia Association of Realtors Legislative Conference in Richmond. This year, due to the pandemic, that event has been held via zoom. Although the value of face to face interaction has been missing, there has been the interchange of timely information.

One of the meetings that I most appreciated was the opportunity to listen to the VAR economist Lisa Sturtevant speak about the state of real estate in Virginia.

One easy way to look at what is going on is to consider what is ‘IN’ and what is ‘OUT’.

OUT Total work from home.		IN Expect to see a shift to a hybrid model. Some days a week at home and some in the office.
OUT Open floor plan.		IN Flexible floor plan with separate spaces for different activities.
OUT Home renovations.		IN Second home purchases (beach, mountain, lake) If there is good internet you can work from home anywhere. The increase in sales has not been consistent across different localities. The shift to the country is real. By the numbers sales have increased unevenly in the following areas: Urban by 3.7%; Suburban by 11.7%; and Rural by 17.9%.
OUT Zooming with family members.		IN Living with multigenerational and extended family
OUT Extremely low inventory.		IN Very low inventory. In December listings were down 38.3% from the same time a year ago. Statewide there are 30,000 fewer listings than a year ago. The demand for housing remains strong with low inventory continuing to be the primary constraint.

Virginia is currently at 95% of Pre-Recession job totals which is better than many states. But full recovery could take years.

New construction has gained. If we see the tariffs on Canadian lumber reduced or removed, it will be good for East coast new home prices. The West coast has decreased lumber supply as a result of the fires.

The savings rate spiked in 2020 as a result of people staying home with fewer opportunities to spend money. The increased savings have allowed many new buyers to enter the market.

Job losses have been mainly concentrated among renters and as such do not impact housing sales. Mortgage rates are historically low. Pre-Covid housing demand was strong and this demand will continue. Improvement will be related to vaccine availability.

Low inventory + low mortgage rates + high demand = rising prices.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE DETAILS OF THE 2021 VAR ECONOMIC AND HOUSING PREDICTIONS

 
*** These are statewide numbers and may not reflect the specific Central VA information given in our local market updates. ***