Market Reports Archives

CAAR Home Sales Report – 2021 Q3

Each quarter of the year Virginia Realtors and the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors (CAAR) compile market data of sold and listed properties during the quarter. HERE IN THIS LINK, and below, are direct links to the full 2021 Q3 Market Report which you can view or download if you prefer.

We are continuing to see strong market activity. Inventory in our area has continued to fall although some parts of the state have seen an increase in listings. An important number to note is 1.5; there is only 1.5 months of inventory in the Central Virginia market. In other words at the current rate of sales it would only take 1.5 months to sell all of the homes that are currently listed for sale. This is down from 2.5 months a year ago.

The median sales price has continued to climb to $365,000

We are also seeing a return of buyers to some of the more urban markets, with an uptick in condos and multi-family in certain areas. There has been a start of cooling in some areas of the state. Last year during the pandemic we lost all of the seasonality in the market, but maybe now we are starting to see a return to seasonality. Going forward we expect to remain in a sellers’ market due to the low inventory. To note, 6 months of inventory is considered a balanced market and anything below 6 months is a sellers’ market.

2nd Quarter Update – Virginia Housing Market

Where is the Housing Market Cooling in Virginia?

Virginia Association of Realtors’ Chief Economist, Lisa Sturtevant, has released the following details about the overall market activity of real estate in the state.

Over the past 12 months, the housing market in Virginia—and really around the country—could only be described as hot. Or maybe frenzied. Perhaps on fire.

And while conditions are still very positive, there are signs that the housing market is cooling a bit in some places across the commonwealth. As conditions change, it is more important than ever to pay attention to local markets and factors that impact local demand and supply.

Why Might the Housing Market Be Cooling?

After a year of the housing market running on all cylinders, it is not surprising to see a downshift in market conditions. There are several reasons why the hyper competitive housing market will ease:

Extremely low inventory and rising home prices have frustrated some would-be homebuyers who have decided to take a pause on their home search.
More homeowners may be listing their homes to try to capitalize on the record home prices in most markets.
With the opening up of the economy, individuals and families may be looking to spend their money on other things—including travel and celebrations—instead of a home purchase.

As housing market conditions ease, we would expect slightly slower sales activity, a bit more inventory, and a lengthening of average days on market. Home prices will continue to rise, though the pace of price growth should moderate slightly.

Where are Markets Cooling?

Markets with lower pending sales activity

Statewide, the number of pending sales dropped 5.5% between May and June. Pending sales are listings that have gone under contract in the month and is a leading indicator of where the closed sales numbers will be a month or two out. In a typical year, there tends to be a slowdown in pending sales between May and June; however, in some local markets, the drop off in new contract activity has been much more pronounced than it has been in the past.

Pending sales have slowed in markets across the state, including in most of Northern Virginia and Central Virginia. For example, in Rappahannock County, there were just eight pending sales in June 2021, down from 20 in May. In Caroline County, the number of pending sales in June 2021 was down by nearly 60% compared to a month earlier.

When the number of new contracts on homes slows, that is an indication of a slowdown in buyer activity, and it means that the number of closed sales will post lower in the months to come.

Markets with rising inventory

At the end of June, there was a total of 19,346 active listings statewide. Inventory is about 18% lower compared to the same time a year ago. However, the pace of inventory being drawn down has slowed and inventory levels have expanded month-to-month for four consecutive months. At the end of June, the number of active listings was up 7.5% compared to the end of May.

Inventory expanded in June in nearly all markets across the commonwealth. The main exceptions are the Northern Neck and Upper Peninsula, where inventory continues to decline month-to-month.

But inventory is up in most places in Virginia. In the City of Lexington, for example, there were 100 active listings on the market at the end of June, which is up 56% compared to May. In Warren County, the number of active listings increased by 52% between May and June.

Outlook

Housing market conditions across Virginia are still strong, though there are signs of an easing of the housing market for many local markets. A cooling housing market is good for buyers, who will have more options and more time to make decisions. Even with a shifting market, inventory will remain relatively low and prices will continue to grow, albeit a bit more slowly. Over the next few months, pay close attention to local market conditions and trends, rather than national figures. All housing markets are local, and this is particularly true during a period of market transition.

Home Price Update For Virginia

Home prices in Virginia have been up by double-digit rates—or close to it—for ten consecutive months. According to Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist of the Virginia Association of Realtors, in May, the median home sales price in Virginia was $367,000 which was up 16.6% compared to the median sales price a year ago. The pace of sales growth this year has been much faster than in recent years, fueled by strong demand, favorable mortgage rates, and low inventory.

Strong Prices Across All Regions

There has been phenomenal price growth in all regions across Virginia. So far, for sales in 2021, the median statewide home price is 13.2% higher than it was during the same period in 2020. The strongest price growth in 2021 has been in some of the state’s smaller markets. For example, the year-to-date median price in the Eastern region is up 25.7%. In the Southside region, prices are 24.2% higher in 2021 compared to 2020.

There has been double-digit price growth in all areas of the commonwealth, including the state’s largest and highest-cost markets. The median price in Northern Virginia climbed 11.9% in the first five months of 2021. Prices are up 15.0% in the Central Virginia region and are 11.1% higher in the Hampton Roads region.

Prices Growing More than Twice as Fast as in Recent Years

In most markets, home prices are growing more than twice as fast as they have in more typical years. Between 2016 and 2021, for example, the median sales price statewide increased by 6.2% on an annual basis. Over the past eight years, since 2013, annual price growth averaged just 4.6% in Virginia.

Price Growth Will Likely Slow

Recent trends in home prices suggest that this past year has, indeed, been extraordinary. While price growth will remain strong throughout 2021 and into 2022, it is likely that the pace of home price appreciation will slow as demand softens, mortgage rates tick up, and inventory expands.

Virginia REALTORS® will release its economic and housing market forecasts later this year, at the 2021 Annual Convention. Several national organizations are forecasting above-average home price growth through 2021, although there is evidence of a slow down in appreciation in 2022. Only the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting a price drop in 2022. The vast majority of economists, however, expect prices to continue to rise.

VAR Realtor Survey – Spring 2021

Our Virginia Association of Realtors has recently published the results of a survey conducted among their Realtor members. Below are the shared nuances of the Spring 2021 real estate market in Virginia.

Making An Offer

• Nearly every REALTOR® responding to this survey said that buyers are making offers over list price or including an escalation clause in their offer. Nearly 90% said offers over list price were “very common” and another 8.5% said they were “somewhat common.”

• Buyers in this market are facing stiff competition, and almost all are offering some type of concession in an attempt to make a successful offer.

• About 87% of Virginia REALTORS® said it was “very common” or “somewhat common” for buyers to waive the home inspection. Some REALTORS® commented that buyers were having an inspection done for information purposes only, but not making the offer contingent on the home inspection results.

• Nearly 70% of Virginia REALTORS® said that waiving appraisals has become “very common” or “somewhat common.” Many REALTORS® note that buyers are including a provision that they will pay a certain amount over any appraised value. Other REALTORS® have pointed out that this trend in waiving appraisals has put VA buyers at a disadvantage because they cannot opt out of an appraisal.

• The following tradeoffs are also “very common” or “somewhat common” in today’s market: increasing the earnest money deposit (79.2%), waiving the home sale contingency (66.2%), and offering a shorter loan contingency timeline (68.6%).

Buying A Home
• The fast-paced market and historically low inventory has forced buyers to re-evaluate their housing and neighborhood preferences, widen their search, and make tradeoffs on amenities. Nearly nine out of 10 Virginia REALTORS® members (87.7%) said that it is “very common” or “somewhat common” for home buyers to look outside of their preferred neighborhoods as they realize how few homes are available.
• Buyers in this market seem less likely to make tradeoffs on the size or style of the home they are looking for, but they are willing to consider homes that need major upgrades or updating.
• Only 34.2% of Virginia REALTORS® said that it was “very common” or “somewhat common” for buyers to settle for a townhome or condo instead of a single-family home.
• A little more than half (51.0%) said that it was “very common” or “somewhat common” for buyers to compromise on space or number of bedrooms.
• More than three quarters of Virginia REALTORS® (75.2%) said that buyers were willing to consider homes that need major upgrades or updating.
• As the inventory of existing homes shrinks, some buyers have turned their sights to new construction. About 56% of Virginia REALTORS® said that building a new home, rather than purchasing an existing home, had become “very common” or “somewhat common” among buyers.
• Finally, the tight market has discouraged many buyers. In fact, more than 70% of Virginia REALTORS® said that it is “very common” or “somewhat common” for buyers to decide to put off buying a home altogether in this market.
Contact your realtor to learn how these findings apply in your particular area and price range.

Make Your Best Offer First

Buying a home in today’s low inventory real estate market requires a new mindset for purchasers. This strategy is not about trying to negotiate the best price; it is about beating out the competition and buying the home. It may be difficult to understand until you have lost a few homes to better offers but when the reality of the situation is that there are not that many homes on the market, the competition heats up and different tactics are necessary.

Sales in December were annualized at 6.76 million, a 22.2% increase year over year according to the National Association of Realtors. The median sales price nationally is $309,800 which is up 12.9% from the previous year. Inventory for December fell to 1.9 months’ supply from 3.0 months’ supply in December of 2019. Six months inventory is considered a balanced market.

Things that work in a buyer’s market will not work in a seller’s market. The shortage of available homes for sale has led to not only shorter market times but multiple offers that have sales prices above the listing price. Buyers, especially in entry to mid-level priced ranges, may have lost out multiple times to buy a home.

Buyers must be strategic if they want to successfully put a home under contract. There are some things that are absolutely essential to just be in the game.

Unless you are paying cash and have adequate proof of funds, you need to get pre-approved. Realtors and financial advisors have been saying this for decades, but it is critical now. There are plenty of reasons that benefit the buyer but most importantly, it is to show that a buyer is serious and has gone through the effort to have a lender run his credit and verify his income, expenses, employment, and credit. Sellers want to make sure that the offer they are choosing will be able to go to closing.

If the home fresh on the market, in a desired location and price range, you need to assume there will be competing offers and you may never even get a counteroffer from the seller. You need to consider making your highest and best offer first, as if you will not get a second chance. This is more difficult for some people than others because of their bargaining nature.

Many properties are going under contract at more than asking price. One strategy that buyers are employing is the escalation clause. For example a buyer will offer full price, but their offer will state that they are willing to escalate their offer by $1,000 (for example) over any competing offer up to a specified amount. With the offers that are coming in at over asking price, there is the chance that a property will not appraise. Some buyers may show the ability to pay an amount between the appraisal and the sale price, if the property does not appraise, thus effectively removing the appraisal contingency. Of course since a cash offer will not have an appraisal, this is another reason that makes a cash offer more desirable.

Earnest money that accompanies a contract shows that the buyer is acting in good faith. The amount that may be customary may not be enough in a competing market. Consider two or three times what might be normal. Talk to your agent about what would make an impression on the seller.

While contingencies like loan approval and inspections will protect your earnest money from specific concerns like loan approval and inspections, the seller will look at them as ways that the buyer can get out of the contract and as a result they’ll need to put the home back on the market. If a seller is presented multiple offers, they might be prone to accept one with the least contingencies, especially, if the prices are comparable.

There is usually a period connected to the different contingencies that are allowed to complete them. By shortening these times as much as possible limits the time the seller might feel they are in limbo.

If you have the flexibility, you might express your willingness to move the closing and/or possession dates to accommodate the seller’s schedule. This could be an important factor in your favor and could be done in a verbal statement conveyed from your agent to the listing agent.

These are things buyers should consider and discuss with their agent before they find the home that they want to buy. While you are formulating your position, another offer may be accepted before you even make yours.

Virginia Real Estate Predictions 2021

In a normal year as part of local real estate association leadership, I would be attending the Virginia Association of Realtors Legislative Conference in Richmond. This year, due to the pandemic, that event has been held via zoom. Although the value of face to face interaction has been missing, there has been the interchange of timely information.

One of the meetings that I most appreciated was the opportunity to listen to the VAR economist Lisa Sturtevant speak about the state of real estate in Virginia.

One easy way to look at what is going on is to consider what is ‘IN’ and what is ‘OUT’.

OUT Total work from home.		IN Expect to see a shift to a hybrid model. Some days a week at home and some in the office.
OUT Open floor plan.		IN Flexible floor plan with separate spaces for different activities.
OUT Home renovations.		IN Second home purchases (beach, mountain, lake) If there is good internet you can work from home anywhere. The increase in sales has not been consistent across different localities. The shift to the country is real. By the numbers sales have increased unevenly in the following areas: Urban by 3.7%; Suburban by 11.7%; and Rural by 17.9%.
OUT Zooming with family members.		IN Living with multigenerational and extended family
OUT Extremely low inventory.		IN Very low inventory. In December listings were down 38.3% from the same time a year ago. Statewide there are 30,000 fewer listings than a year ago. The demand for housing remains strong with low inventory continuing to be the primary constraint.

Virginia is currently at 95% of Pre-Recession job totals which is better than many states. But full recovery could take years.

New construction has gained. If we see the tariffs on Canadian lumber reduced or removed, it will be good for East coast new home prices. The West coast has decreased lumber supply as a result of the fires.

The savings rate spiked in 2020 as a result of people staying home with fewer opportunities to spend money. The increased savings have allowed many new buyers to enter the market.

Job losses have been mainly concentrated among renters and as such do not impact housing sales. Mortgage rates are historically low. Pre-Covid housing demand was strong and this demand will continue. Improvement will be related to vaccine availability.

Low inventory + low mortgage rates + high demand = rising prices.

CLICK HERE FOR MORE DETAILS OF THE 2021 VAR ECONOMIC AND HOUSING PREDICTIONS

*** These are statewide numbers and may not reflect the specific Central VA information given in our local market updates. ***

Autumn 2020 Real Estate Forecast

It continues to be an interesting year, and today’s real estate market is no different. In Central Virginia, we are seeing the spring market in the fall, with strong sales continuing due to pent up demand. At the current purchase rate, there is about a 3 month’s supply of inventory in the Charlottesville area. A 6 months supply is considered a Balanced market and below that number is a Seller’s market. As you can see, we are in a strong seller’s market.

LOCAL HOUSING TRENDS

The move to the suburbs is real and in our Charlottesville area the counties of Nelson, Louisa and Buckingham saw an increased number of sales in July of 2020 as compared to July 2019. As a result of the pandemic, we saw a shift of more people moving out of cities across the country. Many people are working from home and even as we recover, many will continue to work from home. This shift also has changed how we live in our homes. New home sizes had been falling for the past 4-5 years, but we are now seeing an increase in home size.

NATIONAL HOUSING TRENDS

I had the opportunity to listen to Dr Robert Dietz, economist for The National Association of Home Builders, speak last week. According to Dr Dietz, the latest prediction is calling for a 2-year period for economic recovery, and housing is leading this recovery with 16% of GDP.

FINANCING AND PRICING

We are also seeing gains for mortgage purchase applications. However, increased Refinance activity due to the low interest rates helps keep inventory low as more people are staying in their homes and remodeling instead of selling. Due to the low inventory and high demand, we are seeing prices up by about 3%.

NEW CONSTRUCTION IMPACT

Since there is a shortage of resale homes coming onto the market, it will be necessary to have a strong new construction industry. However, there are several headwinds for new construction. Until there is a vaccine or treatment, there is the risk of renewed lockdowns. There continues to be a shortage of skilled construction workers, and although we are seeing an increase in trade schools, training takes time. There has been a 170% increase in lumber prices since April. This adds about $16,000-$20,000 to a new build.

GLOBAL IMPACT ON NEW CONSTRUCTION

New home prices and the cost of remodeling will gradually go up as builders go through the current stock of lumber. Since we get about 1/3 of our lumber from Canada, we will want to watch what happens with the tariff. Another impact on new construction, is the fact that the global supply chain has been disrupted because of Covid and the natural disasters. For new construction, you can expect higher prices and delays.

As you can see, there is cause for optimism, but one thing that we have learned this year is that things can change quickly.

Covid and Local Real Estate

I hope that everyone is doing well in these unusual times. The market report that is featured below offers a snapshot of the first quarter 2020. This shows what was going on right before Covid hit. The year started off with a strong economy, an extremely strong real estate market and the expectation that we were off to an outstanding year. I expect that the second quarter market report will show quite different figures. The coronavirus has changed everything. Many sellers have taken their homes off the market or are waiting to put their home on the market. There are fewer buyers actively looking right now. Sold numbers are just starting to decline, but it is important to remember that those solds went under contract in March before the pandemic hit. Moving forward the sold figures will drop since they will be indicative of sales during the current crisis. The important number to look at is the homes with contracts pending, since that is a more accurate indicator of what is going on right now.

We are hopeful that we will see figures start to trend upward again in the third quarter, with the anticipation of pent up demand leading to a positive fall real estate market.

However, if you need to buy or sell now there is opportunity. For sellers, since there are fewer homes on the market right now, there is less competition for your home. And if you are a buyer, you can take advantage of the fact that there are fewer buyers actively looking for you to compete with over the home that you want. It is a very personal decision, whether you are comfortable looking at homes right now or having people go through your home. We are all trying to keep everyone as safe as possible while continuing to do business. It is helpful if sellers turn all the lights on and open doors, closets and cabinets to minimize people touching anything. Also, we are requesting everyone to wear gloves and masks, and sellers are wiping down surfaces and disinfecting frequently.

If you do decide to wait to put your home on the market, this is a good time to de-clutter, make updates and repairs, and get your landscaping ready to make a good first impression. Then you will be ready to take advantage of the pent-up demand when restrictions ease up in the 3rd or 4th quarter. One type of property that I have been getting a lot of inquiries on are retreat and/or sustainable farmette type properties. As a result of the pandemic we are seeing more people looking for private properties on about 10-30 acres where they can have a big garden, chickens, critters and shelter at home. Many people are interested in moving out of more crowded living conditions to a property with more space.

If you are a seller and your home will be vacant, you may still decide to put your home on the market, but if you are living in the home, it may be the best choice for your family to wait. There are people who need to buy or sell now, and as much as possible we will try to accommodate their needs. With people sheltering at home with time on their hands, anyone who is considering a move will be online searching listings. Good photographs and plenty of information will be more important than ever before.

Going forward I expect that we will continue to come up with creative ways to serve our clients while keeping everyone as safe as possible.

CAAR 1ST QUARTER MKT REPORT

Charlottesville Horse Farms | Market Report for October 2018

Dreaming of the day where you could wake up, make a cup of coffee, go out, and care for your own horses?

Turn it into a reality when you buy a horse farm in Charlottesville VA! The city of Charlottesville is a beautiful area that is full of rich history and gorgeous landscapes. Located in West Central Virginia, it is approximately 100 miles southwest of Washington, D.C. and 70 miles northwest of Richmond, Virginia.

Charlottesville is home to the University of Virginia. The institution was founded in 1819 by Thomas Jefferson and has been consistently listed among the top ten public universities nationwide. The University of Virginia serves as the city’s focal point for cultural and sporting events.

The city also takes pride in having raised three former presidents — Thomas Jefferson, Woodrow Wilson, and James Madison. Moreover, their former residences are now historic sites and architectural wonders that draw thousands of visitors yearly.

Fall in love with America’s favorite mountain town!

Nestled in the foothills of the beautiful Blue Ridge Mountains, you’ll never run out of things to enjoy in this city. Hiking, kayaking and horseback riding are popular during summer, while the winter offers skiing and snow-tubing.

Agriculture is also prominent in the area. You’ll find nearly 200,000 acres of orchards, vineyards, and cattle farms. The grape business is one of the fastest growing industry in the region. Wines and vineyards in Charlottesville are nationally recognized and the area is regarded as among the country’s top wine producers.

Horse farming is another significant industry in the city. In fact, there are more than 13,000 horses stabled in the community and the surrounding county.

Charlottesville Horse Farms

Charlottesville has some beautiful horse farms. In fact, the area is well known for being the haven of grand equestrian estates. It is the go to for anyone that is an avid fan of horses and consider it as a hobby. You’ll also find hundreds of miles of beautiful, scenic trails, designed specifically for horseback riding.

The horse farms in Charlottesville are surrounded by breathtaking scenic views. Many of the properties are also equipped with all the space and infrastructure needed for the proper care and maintenance of horses.

If you are looking for the excitement of the equestrian lifestyle, Charlottesville is certainly a place you would want to call your home.

Market Report for January 2018

There are currently 76 Charlottesville farms for sale. The prices range from $219,900 to $27,000,000. Spaces vary from as much as 15 to 915 acres.

For this report we are focusing on farms in Albemarle County immediately surrounding the city of Charlottesville.

Horse Farms for Sale in Charlottesville VA

76 Horse Farms for Sale -76 Traditional Sales
0 Short Sale
0 Bank-Owned/REO Property

The median listing price of these horse farms is $ 1,620,000.

Click here for the current list of horse farms for sale in Charlottesville.

Call me, Pam Dent, at 434-960-0161. With my extensive knowledge of the Charlottesville area and the real estate market, I can help you find the best equestrian property that suits your lifestyle.

Charlottesville Horse Farms | Market Report for February 2018

Your own country getaway and horse farm is waiting!

If you’ve been longing for a peaceful and tranquil life in the country where you can enjoy the company of your horses, then you should come and see the desirable city of Charlottesville VA.

This charming town is situated within the upper Piedmont Plateau, in the foothills of the Blue Ridge Mountains and at the headwaters of the Rivanna River. It is approximately 100 miles southwest of Washington D.C. and 70 miles northwest of Richmond, Virginia.

It was established as a town in 1762 by the Virginia General Assembly and was incorporated as an independent city in 1888.

Residents and tourists alike love Charlottesville because of its rich cultural, natural, and artistic history showcased in a selection of first-rate museums, galleries, wineries, shops, and parks dispersed throughout the area. The city was also home to Thomas Jefferson, James Madison, and James Monroe.

Some of the historic attractions include Monticello, the Grounds of the University of Virginia, Ash Lawn-Highland, Historic Court Square, and Michie Tavern, ca. 1784. There are tours, special events, and educational programs aimed at maintaining the vibrant spirit of the past.

What makes Charlottesville horse farms so desirable?

Charlottesville is home to the most beautiful houses, peaceful farmlands, horse properties, and estates in the country. There are also many rivers and lakes that provide the perfect setting for aquatic pursuits, such as swimming, fishing, kayaking, canoeing, and tubing.

The city of Charlottesville boasts of a rich equestrian history, dating back to colonial times. It’s no surprise then that equestrian buyers from all over the world are drawn to this town.

With plenty of grass in the area, horses can graze in open pastures. They are free to run and live with enough space to get adequate exercise.

This town provides opportunities to attend horse shows year round within a short drive of Charlottesville. You’ll also find hundreds of miles of beautiful, scenic trails, designed specifically for horseback riding. James River State Park, nestled in the foothills of the nearby Blue Ridge Mountains, has 20 miles of many different types of riding trails.

Are you thinking of expanding your investment portfolio?

If you love horses and would like to own a countryside escape, the equestrian properties in Charlottesville are what you are looking for.

You’ll definitely find well-planned properties on the market that have everything that a horse farm buyer could ask for.

Market Report for February 2018

There are currently 161 Charlottesville and Albemarle County Virginia farms for sale. The prices range from $325,000 to $19,780,000. Spaces vary from as much as 20 to 870 acres.

Horse Farms for Sale in Charlottesville VA

161 Horse Farms for Sale – 161 Traditional Sales
0 Short Sale
0 Bank-Owned/REO Property

The median listing price of these horse farms is $ 1,695,000.

Click here for the current list of horse farms for sale in Charlottesville.

Call me, Pam Dent, at 434-960-0161. With my extensive knowledge of the Charlottesville area and the real estate market, I can help you find the best equestrian property that suits your lifestyle.

In case you can not view this video here, please click the link below to view CHARLOTTESVILLE HORSE FARMS | MARKET REPORT FOR FEBRUARY 2018 on my YouTube channel: https://youtu.be/lue0IrZPS9I.

CAAR Home Sales Report – 2021 Q3

2nd Quarter Update – Virginia Housing Market